Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69ffa36a4fd9161da46064f13b6a93044a66a77b6192133ee45bf40d4af08f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,231 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 46c | 928.51$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.28 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…a4a1backed Yes | 23c | 899.23$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed No | 66c | 421.54$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 73c | 376.57$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.31 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 62c | 321.42$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…849abacked No | 33c | 244.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 58c | 233.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 67c | 225.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 18c | 211.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.61 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…5b3abacked No | 52c | 184.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked No | 64c | 156.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…d68abacked No | 69c | 103.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…a428backed No | 66c | 75.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…e2d7backed Yes | 59c | 46.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked No | 69c | 41.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 34c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed No | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 45c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 23?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on March 23?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.