TailMyPicks
Market

Stocks · resolved market

Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes35c9,228$3,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,995.2881240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked No66c9,000$5,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,98020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c5,625$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.461,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked No58c4,570$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.731,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf295…508fbacked No63c3,727$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No49c2,930$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.4526237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No73c1,819$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.227071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No59c1,471$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.871,78349%874 W · 909 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes29c1,316$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.972718.5%5 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed No6c1,100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No63c610$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8516248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed No73c573.68$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.093148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No70c571.43$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005850%29 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes39c557.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5522129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No65c509$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.92688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes65c454$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.362536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No55c424.26$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.2199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked No53c385.92$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.541526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No39c382.37$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9160229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…3d2abacked Yes34c340$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdec…ba9bbacked Yes40c318.53$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes71c310$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3813941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd43e…b2c0backed No65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd1…1798backed No42c300$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes43c290.6$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7356548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No47c265.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1615131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa3…7a1abacked No40c253.7$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked Yes66c240$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcebe…edfdbacked No70c239.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c234.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8819934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c211.94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0516418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x583f…7aaabacked Yes60c200$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1985…8cbdbacked Yes37c186.18$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.181464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+93.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed No52c180$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed No47c161.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9918853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc781…bdaebacked No41c161$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584b…bdc9backed No41c158$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dbb…27fcbacked No41c156$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8b…d443backed No41c155$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89cf…c649backed No41c155$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1573…0305backed Yes62c154$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…0054backed No41c153$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…6d53backed No41c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b0…ff2cbacked No41c144$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb18…ea45backed No41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a61…aab8backed No41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878e…1fa1backed No41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x955d…7134backed No41c141$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed No49c140$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253a…8d10backed No41c138$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes32c120.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes63c120$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No71c118$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.174057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No46c117.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.235335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb329…5381backed Yes59c113$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaba…1520backed Yes59c112$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c8…98c7backed Yes59c112$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e97…5b49backed Yes59c111$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked No73c110$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-87.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf26e…c260backed Yes59c109$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fc…45c7backed Yes59c105$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f39…4935backed Yes59c105$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No53c105$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6543838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb88…a7d1backed Yes59c105$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd7…d347backed Yes59c104$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c100.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0717049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733450%17 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee6…2922backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x233f…405ebacked No68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x364b…b295backed Yes59c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b9…17e6backed Yes59c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a69…66d6backed Yes59c98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e0…2748backed Yes59c97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf992…ebb5backed Yes25c95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+95.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa095…e90abacked Yes59c95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2411…5e31backed Yes59c95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc97f…05dcbacked Yes59c95$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes49c94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.416256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…915bbacked Yes59c78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf78f…f225backed No41c74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…0378backed Yes59c73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3774…3735backed Yes59c71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8835…4ed5backed Yes59c69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes65c68.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4327429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x478c…5939backed Yes59c66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No40c65.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0915947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x483e…4a9cbacked Yes21c65.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ca…9a86backed Yes32c63.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74eb…c78abacked No66c59.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No34c57.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes26c57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+198.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74ab…9a54backed Yes32c53.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb1…14d7backed Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes34c49.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.838536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No26c45.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked No72c44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.