Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a29ccbbe71b87570c2c3feae6be0c42963c15e26e4dd46ccb0aa4f9d269a1bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 78c | 6,608$5,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.79 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 50c | 6,294$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,124.4 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed No | 23c | 3,330$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 40c | 2,226$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.71 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 79c | 2,168$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 51c | 1,774$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.42 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 27c | 978.32$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.15 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 3c | 920$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 892.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 19c | 858$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 16c | 832$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 21c | 825.92$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.73 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 56c | 684.81$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 20c | 582.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes | 77c | 500$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 462.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 19c | 419.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed No | 24c | 417.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 28c | 384.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…e520backed Yes | 78c | 309.17$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 290$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 272.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 54c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 216$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 23c | 215.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 185$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes | 63c | 158.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 157$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 134.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 117.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 66c | 110.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…8886backed No | 43c | 105.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 71c | 105.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…ac7abacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 80.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked No | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 51c | 74.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 16c | 74.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 64c | 70.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 64.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 59.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 55.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 49c | 43.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 40.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…2506backed No | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…9eddbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.