Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a058b72ba812fcfa928fd9ff7a35ab0ad03a3eb5afc14ca0dd01e59f76c35fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 26c | 7,904$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.33 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,895$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 9c | 3,526$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 3,235$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 2,910$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.02 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 2,224$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.72 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed No | 55c | 1,118$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 10c | 843.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 747.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 4c | 627.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…8886backed Yes | 7c | 599.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…0f32backed Yes | 6c | 444.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 64c | 439.92$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 315$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 311$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 307.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…028abacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…8642backed Yes | 20c | 245.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 66c | 230$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 6c | 160.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 114.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…2ec7backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…4ba0backed Yes | 12c | 87.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.