Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between ≥4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e0c18d774492d647cd576979b4560827b4737c4e710093b2d48e511b06205aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 23c | 2,842$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 2,241$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.75 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2237…97b0backed No | 73c | 1,600$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed Yes | 27c | 1,600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 77c | 1,539$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 72c | 1,150$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 28c | 1,050$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.09 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 72c | 401.06$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 23c | 400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 350$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 72c | 273$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…61debacked Yes | 22c | 245$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 200.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb112…b6d9backed No | 75c | 150.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed No | 76c | 127.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 79c | 121.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…1593backed Yes | 21c | 118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 113$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…fd9dbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed No | 80c | 56.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…efddbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 40.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e8…fed4backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…77e0backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…38ffbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 80c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between ≥4.3%?this page
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.1%?No won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.2%?Yes won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.