Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd23f61cfa527196a6b4ae954c24d3385dc8ea94859bc873d66a9c0e0ea28248a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 73c | 2,604$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 26c | 1,167$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed Yes | 25c | 399.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…7575backed Yes | 26c | 382.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed No | 55c | 279.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 23c | 225$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 34c | 162.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 34c | 135.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 34c | 126$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…1593backed Yes | 33c | 117.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 112.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 45c | 103.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 39c | 96.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 24c | 81.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…a909backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…d6ddbacked Yes | 27c | 72.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.1%?this page
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between 4.2%?Yes won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be between ≥4.3%?No won
- Will the March 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.