World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46299157eee1985483f5234f0f84b50c56a19f4411e162ffbc98c707e68144c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 19c | 337$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.56 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 80c | 310$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 64c | 307.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 39c | 277.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.56 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked No | 63c | 268.21$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 18c | 258.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 61c | 190.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed Yes | 24c | 122.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 12c | 89.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed Yes | 70c | 67.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 35c | 43.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…20d4backed Yes | 38c | 39.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…232fbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?this page
- Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.