AI · resolved market
AWS service disrupted by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f85b0d93db11c449ff2b38687dcd1eacde59f87237c15815af3fa1b5b8e1cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,840$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 3c | 2,274$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf682…935cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,514$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 6c | 1,308$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…c0a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,267$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,180$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 757.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8309…3de3backed Yes | 5c | 736.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 16c | 699.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 539.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 499$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 438.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 5c | 327.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 299.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…ca6fbacked Yes | 13c | 299.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 21c | 283.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 225.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 214.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…e29cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 148$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 127.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb95…e06dbacked Yes | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…9f30backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…e6e7backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…dfc2backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…6456backed Yes | 24c | 77.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…fa0ebacked Yes | 18c | 55.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.