Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $178 end of December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0787bfecb4b06f1b263bea61250932220c004c048f1ebdcc0432b615488429bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 21c | 3,942$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 61c | 1,599$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.2 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed No | 24c | 1,456$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.23 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 5c | 1,198$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.07 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 513.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.12 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 3c | 412.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.54 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 9c | 376$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.85 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 345.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.89 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 5c | 314.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 5cpaid | +2,122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 20c | 194.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 58c | 187.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 12c | 166.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 75c | 110.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…e04cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 70c | 93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…8435backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $178 end of December?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $158 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $162 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $164 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $166 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $170 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $172 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $174 end of December?Yes won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $176 end of December?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.