Fifa International · resolved market
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4e4bf288d8caa229a72a48b985722df1b803e11a9d0d7e9a3fa8275ecccb34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 16,913$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 133 | 31.6%42 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 4c | 5,211$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,587$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 3,515$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7c…3016backed Yes | 4c | 3,349$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,985$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,897$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 5c | 2,882$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,677$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,624$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,443$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,377$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 3c | 1,549$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…7796backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 10c | 1,499$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 5c | 1,418$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd8…f260backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 379 | 19.5%74 W · 305 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681e…25d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,102$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…9a45backed Yes | 3c | 1,077$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…1377backed Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…2997backed Yes | 4c | 948$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 827.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…86b4backed Yes | 20c | 819$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 269 | 40.9%110 W · 159 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 7c | 732.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 24.8%50 W · 152 L | -15.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…f861backed Yes | 3c | 687.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ad…f8f1backed Yes | 3c | 599.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 11c | 580$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 574.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf41…8226backed Yes | 4c | 572$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…76adbacked Yes | 5c | 558.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 3c | 550$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ce…5d26backed Yes | 4c | 539.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 8.8%8 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Yes | 7c | 496.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 185 | 38.9%72 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e5…3bc7backed Yes | 4c | 440.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a2…0228backed Yes | 4c | 394.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed Yes | 16c | 375.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…8947backed Yes | 5c | 370.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 368.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…ae3cbacked Yes | 4c | 366.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…c74dbacked Yes | 4c | 356.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 4c | 330.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 321.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Yes | 18c | 276.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 29.4%42 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…6834backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69e…85c2backed Yes | 5c | 200.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 195.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…11bdbacked Yes | 10c | 148.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…21bebacked Yes | 11c | 118.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 10c | 108.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…eeacbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 80c | 27.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 79c | 22.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.