Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ed7e3f1804391ec37586b8ba14011b36d39f8a4e237cac0d9f21db46b57a60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 1,311$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.03 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…2786backed Yes | 35c | 655.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 587.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 77c | 247.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 76c | 234$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed No | 20c | 139.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 137.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 58.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…e0debacked Yes | 29c | 37.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of December?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of December?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of December?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of December?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of December?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of December?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.