Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ebfec9fc5419bf2f7ca33d0a49d5b855fefd5012fc959ae32ad2ea95729d54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 35c | 16,411$5,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,721.64 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 68c | 9,307$6,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.1 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 38c | 8,400$3,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.38 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 39c | 6,582$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.01 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…1c51backed Yes | 32c | 6,420$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,066.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 68c | 6,300$4,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 38c | 4,405$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 32c | 3,198$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 64c | 3,110$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.57 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 66c | 3,013$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.16 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 31c | 2,700$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.29 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 39c | 2,325$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.77 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…9c8ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,012$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 61c | 2,009$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.5 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 1,683$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.97 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 1,319$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.21 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 20c | 1,164$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 31c | 1,090$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 60c | 745.98$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.01 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…e1efbacked Yes | 32c | 641$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 67c | 599.99$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 67c | 530.5$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 57c | 497$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.34 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 60c | 454$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 30c | 384.65$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 67c | 293.6$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe066…9ebbbacked No | 62c | 244$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 20c | 222.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…2aefbacked Yes | 28c | 219.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked No | 69c | 215$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 206.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 61c | 198$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes | 31c | 188.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 187.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…f159backed Yes | 35c | 178$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…61aabacked Yes | 38c | 170.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +322.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…3c6cbacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd214…5fcdbacked No | 68c | 138$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed No | 67c | 120.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 59c | 114.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 100.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…86b7backed No | 69c | 95.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 90.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed No | 68c | 85.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 67c | 77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaf…7396backed Yes | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 68c | 67.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 71c | 54.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…2f8dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…27f4backed Yes | 39c | 51.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…61eabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 49.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked No | 70c | 46.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…108bbacked Yes | 35c | 44.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…a0a8backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…347fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 71c | 36.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 70c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc93…bc03backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…5d5cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…6973backed Yes | 36c | 27.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed No | 69c | 23.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…a9a9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…84babacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…ab7dbacked No | 66c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked No | 69c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.