Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac3700796cbac24c9122f4c80b90678c4043de19d2dc2889825b9392971c7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 13,437$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.73 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 7c | 12,020$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.59 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…db63backed Yes | 9c | 11,843$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…47ccbacked Yes | 12c | 11,182$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 1c | 4,146$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 9c | 2,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,089$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.94 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,085$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.75 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…61aabacked Yes | 10c | 1,937$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +322.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 7c | 1,903$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 13c | 1,786$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 18c | 1,739$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed Yes | 10c | 1,535$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 6c | 1,290$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,167$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 993.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…9c8ebacked Yes | 10c | 900$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 6c | 799.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de6…302fbacked Yes | 4c | 370$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 8c | 318$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…ffb0backed Yes | 11c | 225.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes | 6c | 212$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b19…c271backed Yes | 8c | 167.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…f780backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.