Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83e014bb9dd9896dab2993553f6009ad1b1286df99c5c244afba73e4a8e086c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 4c | 9,139$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.13 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 3c | 7,310$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 4c | 7,146$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.7 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 2c | 5,258$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 2c | 4,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 4,067$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 3c | 3,792$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 2c | 3,575$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 1c | 2,234$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 1,706$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,655$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 2c | 1,402$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 5c | 1,154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked Yes | 4c | 819.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…f782backed Yes | 9c | 106.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.