Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084cb533ce8f4b7a8ec074bd742de320f48601648480666b60f8186653c5d533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…47ccbacked No | 68c | 42,131$28,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,603.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 9c | 30,360$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,704.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 34c | 7,003$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,610.74 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 35c | 6,662$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,323.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 36c | 4,800$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…1c51backed Yes | 37c | 3,034$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,780$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 36c | 1,790$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.87 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 1,777$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.74 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 35c | 1,420$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…705bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,377$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 55c | 867$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 42c | 819.39$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 772$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.11 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…9c8ebacked Yes | 36c | 548.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 36c | 537$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.63 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 490.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.78 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 475.4$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…96c3backed No | 62c | 459$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 36c | 445.45$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 71c | 400$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 36c | 345.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 22c | 284.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 36c | 249.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 38c | 209.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…e341backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…3c6cbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 60c | 145$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 133.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked No | 61c | 127.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…27e0backed Yes | 34c | 126.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…6cb1backed No | 64c | 113$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed No | 64c | 105.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…54c4backed No | 62c | 89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 77.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…0161backed Yes | 34c | 76.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e11…923dbacked No | 73c | 71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…7da4backed Yes | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…5edfbacked No | 59c | 52.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…aa26backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…9953backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…a0a8backed Yes | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…fb59backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 66c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 58c | 42.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 65c | 42.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…27f4backed Yes | 39c | 40.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…7a15backed Yes | 50c | 40.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed No | 63c | 31.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 37c | 31.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 30.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…4657backed Yes | 44c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…c183backed No | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…84babacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…fc3cbacked No | 64c | 19.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 17.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.