Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459538a4d3d80d5ca8861a885f776af15cb35a04007a7e4d4c35ebca1f6bda98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 20c | 13,720$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.7 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 16c | 11,838$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…13fdbacked No | 78c | 10,100$7,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 17c | 6,604$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.3 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 14c | 4,396$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.53 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 20c | 3,792$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.07 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 15c | 2,516$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.03 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 1,774$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 78c | 1,616$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.79 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,095$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.07 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 79c | 1,000$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 11c | 950$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 1c | 925.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 80c | 644.83$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…3ad0backed No | 79c | 620.25$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed No | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 25c | 364.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 359.35$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 319.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…dd2cbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 21c | 261.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fa…9cf7backed Yes | 20c | 258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 17c | 214.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…e1efbacked No | 78c | 196$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 16c | 181.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked No | 80c | 178.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 16c | 174.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 165.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…f159backed No | 78c | 158$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa933…4e84backed Yes | 20c | 157.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed No | 78c | 125.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 79c | 101.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +4,963.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c4…a149backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f67…5c05backed Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 80c | 78.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 66.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed No | 78c | 63.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 19c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 76c | 56.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172f…d959backed Yes | 19c | 51.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…bcd3backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…a0a8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…8c47backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 46.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…dd96backed No | 77c | 41.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked No | 79c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 78c | 27.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…b9d2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…84babacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked No | 76c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.