World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee79b24d10d81184a613ec9b605aee21a2cc3cae3427c1ffadc3a46429305c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 56c | 815.57$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.05 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…f2a9backed Yes | 43c | 462.41$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…24babacked Yes | 49c | 447.96$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 394.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 32c | 355.4$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 47c | 315.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…46d8backed Yes | 69c | 288.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 19c | 287.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…be1cbacked Yes | 39c | 258.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 251$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…83c9backed Yes | 40c | 209.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 187.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 168$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…d32abacked Yes | 70c | 134.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…7973backed Yes | 66c | 106.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…2768backed No | 58c | 95.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 79.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…ca1cbacked Yes | 29c | 73.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…c5ccbacked Yes | 58c | 68.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 64.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 62.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 61.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 39c | 50.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 50.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 26c | 39.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 38c | 35.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…6f82backed Yes | 57c | 35.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 33.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 32.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 16.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?this page
- Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the next Maltese general election?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 15-20%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.