World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29efff355510cf01e5743d5956a28da9a48b69652d92b2692ef62ccdec744021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 9c | 1,364$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…83c9backed Yes | 24c | 216.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…73f8backed Yes | 24c | 211.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ae89backed Yes | 23c | 160.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 127.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…c5ccbacked Yes | 21c | 126.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…be1cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 11c | 105.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b5…978abacked Yes | 24c | 97.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 82.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 70c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?this page
- Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the next Maltese general election?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 15-20%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.