World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c38617e4d54dbda16f7e680cd2e24af640602c8a1e991a68a551f97422e0f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fd5…c9c3backed Yes | 16c | 904.79$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…aec1backed Yes | 40c | 499.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 404.56$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…24babacked Yes | 52c | 271.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…f2a9backed Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…4457backed Yes | 25c | 200.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 195.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 178.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…572abacked Yes | 22c | 157.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 131$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 60c | 106.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…ee56backed Yes | 53c | 94.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…3ff7backed Yes | 58c | 94.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 94.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 12c | 87.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…18b5backed Yes | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 61.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…1b25backed Yes | 34c | 58.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…2768backed Yes | 52c | 58.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…f452backed Yes | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 77c | 39.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c7…c5ccbacked Yes | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…4081backed Yes | 61c | 38.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 38.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 37.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 33.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 10-15%?this page
- Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the next Maltese general election?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 15-20%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%?No won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 5-10%?Yes won
- Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.