Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21455b5d18026dbb4564366ecb7390b8d88099285713be93a4e79b502da62ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 76c | 8,871$6,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 78c | 5,003$3,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9c…73bebacked No | 19c | 1,461$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…9465backed Yes | 77c | 1,417$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 23c | 1,013$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.96 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed Yes | 76c | 805$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 76c | 715$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 77c | 516.33$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 77c | 459.53$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 26c | 365$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +61%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 79c | 364.37$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 13c | 287.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 80c | 218.56$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 79c | 210.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…15c9backed Yes | 76c | 202.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 75c | 197.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 174.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 79c | 162$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 11c | 97.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 84.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 26c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 70.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 25c | 63.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 76c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…50f1backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 77c | 27.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Yes | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7294…4029backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 76c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Democrats win five elections in Nov?this page
- Will Democrats win four elections in Nov?No won
- Will Democrats win one election in Nov?No won
- Will Democrats win three elections in Nov?No won
- Will Democrats win two elections in Nov?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.