Fifa International · resolved market
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf212bd2891f0e33a1c16730bd8980c69ffd9d0eca10b43191b73dac023262fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,169,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,680,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,169,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8658…f20fbacked Yes | 0c | 563,950$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.6 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…9786backed Yes | 0c | 235,720$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.43 | 152 | 9.9%15 W · 137 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 99,675$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 83,831$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 0c | 79,168$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…9830backed Yes | 0c | 63,110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 29,162$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 170 | 5.9%10 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…2ad7backed Yes | 1c | 20,998$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 0c | 20,670$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 427 | 10.3%44 W · 383 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…8ef1backed Yes | 0c | 19,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…ce35backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 10,514$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cc…379fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,285$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 7,616$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 7,599$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…92debacked Yes | 0c | 6,849$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 0c | 6,194$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,498$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc502…c392backed Yes | 1c | 4,572$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…3d02backed Yes | 1c | 4,502$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…87b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,946$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…0ce3backed Yes | 1c | 3,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x591b…9f37backed Yes | 1c | 3,293$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…55d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,054$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…2aa4backed Yes | 1c | 2,793$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…7c37backed Yes | 1c | 2,408$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…63febacked Yes | 1c | 2,272$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd5…4d46backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…53fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,424$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe431…0444backed Yes | 1c | 1,398$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…ce56backed Yes | 1c | 1,244$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…a116backed Yes | 1c | 1,211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…2cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…42b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,059$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bb…2a9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159b…b74ebacked Yes | 1c | 946$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…6c39backed Yes | 1c | 924$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…3683backed Yes | 1c | 907$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2951backed Yes | 1c | 866$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bc…0e1bbacked Yes | 1c | 735$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Yes | 3c | 732.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 234 | 43.6%102 W · 132 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763a…0991backed Yes | 2c | 622.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.