Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3237646608b34b44c22af4df0e3495439f611be0ea9ca2a0d245e25e50a32fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 48c | 2,139$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.7 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 35c | 1,691$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.01 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 32c | 1,301$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 72c | 693.4$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 20c | 482.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 11c | 448.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 5c | 426.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 3c | 426.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 299.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 25c | 287.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.96 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 67c | 212$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 194.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 65c | 144$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 43c | 126$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?this page
- Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?Yes won
- Will the New Jersey Governor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?No won
- Will the Virginia Governor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.