Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296ba311e3d4f60e44feb6fa7e8d8339a6fda96f9eac4aed81ba99b72549192c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 18c | 977.21$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.33 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 64c | 900.44$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.85 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 594.8$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.09 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 6c | 420$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 256.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +271.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 200.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 26c | 195$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 63c | 190.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 27c | 182.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 49c | 166.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 53c | 149.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 67c | 140.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed Yes | 24c | 128$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…2a96backed Yes | 40c | 126$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 67.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?this page
- Will the New Jersey Governor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?No won
- Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?No won
- Will the Virginia Governor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.