Earnings · resolved market
Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf1e39e8e54392442711030179952dd9029afde35c0868fb510ac28b72da5998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 32c | 1,010$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.44 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 31c | 483.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 68c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 34c | 250.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 68c | 245$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Yes | 65c | 152.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 147.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 31c | 121.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…55b0backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…a49fbacked Yes | 67c | 55.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 67c | 43.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Yes | 66c | 40.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 35.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 68c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…bdb5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.