Earnings · resolved market
Will United Parcel Service (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe014d2989a339f86a41ce3eb0b87a8f0a15d4506740462c8a83e6d06c6e58330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 30c | 1,275$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.1 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 34c | 858.15$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 63c | 803.52$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.52 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 25c | 641.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 73c | 625.64$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 30c | 611.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 67c | 610.59$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.71 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 54c | 600.08$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274 | 29 | 89.7%26 W · 3 L | +7.2wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…d3debacked No | 27c | 561.11$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a79…b1a8backed Yes | 74c | 532.8$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 34c | 320.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 32c | 315.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…2e92backed Yes | 68c | 294.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…17efbacked Yes | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 68c | 255$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…087fbacked Yes | 68c | 243.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 69c | 209.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 70c | 183.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 69c | 170$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 67c | 159.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0264…91acbacked Yes | 70c | 147.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…3695backed Yes | 71c | 139.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a5…c4cabacked Yes | 79c | 127.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 74c | 124.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 69c | 124.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 20c | 102.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4490…9bfdbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked No | 34c | 94.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 89.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 24c | 82.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…6fb8backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 20c | 75.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…57d8backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…9617backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…eea1backed Yes | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…13e7backed No | 39c | 51.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 70c | 41.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 35.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…fb50backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d63dbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 72c | 18.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.