Earnings · resolved market
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fdc59e7eda9e7ad5b36efd57bfdf5fd8fd2d93626de432e32cf7e205c6e3eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 2,721$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 3c | 2,337$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 29c | 1,896$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.01 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 66c | 984.88$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.02 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 78c | 952.36$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.79 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 32c | 926.28$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.82 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 42c | 520$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 23c | 500.85$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +339.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 58c | 500$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 8c | 491.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.79 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 64c | 475.22$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed Yes | 67c | 459.95$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 24c | 309.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.73 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked Yes | 63c | 302$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 70c | 257$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 74c | 240$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 67c | 227.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 62c | 226.3$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…7517backed Yes | 73c | 223.3$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 18c | 212.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 55c | 192.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 37c | 189.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 175.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 76c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 36c | 139.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 78c | 136.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…62efbacked No | 27c | 132.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 67c | 102.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed Yes | 72c | 101.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 36c | 89.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 84.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…facfbacked No | 29c | 68.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 24c | 67.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 29c | 64.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 62.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59bd…06d2backed Yes | 74c | 56.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 26c | 43.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed Yes | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…aa1fbacked Yes | 69c | 43.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 77cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 41.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.