Earnings · resolved market
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd16cd1702f4c3e4a92209d7e18bc6a57ce86d30bb35e058235d88da3d2dd2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 77c | 5,205$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.7 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 8c | 4,222$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 28c | 2,706$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.76 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…e63dbacked No | 40c | 1,693$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,069$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed Yes | 69c | 1,050$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 1,028$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.74 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…e451backed Yes | 2c | 930.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 899.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 63c | 827.93$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.6 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes | 69c | 750$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 2c | 642.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 22c | 623$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.55 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…3499backed Yes | 53c | 616.76$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…caafbacked No | 36c | 556.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcd…42e1backed No | 16c | 534.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 50c | 512.86$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.43 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 25c | 491.43$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.43 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 454$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 454$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 397.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.53 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 30c | 337.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 19c | 334.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 315.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 75c | 311.32$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 41c | 298.3$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 73c | 281.06$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 79c | 254.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 37c | 239$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 33c | 231.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed Yes | 63c | 220$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 23c | 216.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 61c | 183.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 69c | 166.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 31c | 156.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…13a0backed Yes | 10c | 149.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…2a77backed Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked No | 15c | 136.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…f622backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 76c | 99.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 80c | 97.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…a876backed No | 22c | 96.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…d677backed Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…7a49backed Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…abe8backed No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 28c | 61.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…3695backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 59.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 22c | 58.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 27c | 58.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 20c | 51.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 70c | 45.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…2c5ebacked No | 23c | 44.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 30.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…0d49backed Yes | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 74cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…54f6backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…5543backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe195…c903backed Yes | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…bf5fbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.