Us Midterms · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144a4385b5748c000ba279635ed8750e5db7ef880d0a0ded0c595536c59ce845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x848d…da63backed No | 50c | 21,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…a02fbacked Yes | 50c | 21,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,604$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…4095backed Yes | 4c | 2,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…5f17backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaba…a1d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,453$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 4c | 1,066$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 3c | 936.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 8c | 864.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 8c | 752.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 663.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…9eb3backed Yes | 4c | 565.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 537.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 4c | 535.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2641backed Yes | 3c | 522.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 5c | 435.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 25c | 410.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 8c | 283.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ad…f700backed Yes | 22c | 223.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…5fa4backed Yes | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 181 | 26%47 W · 134 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc09…4461backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?this page
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?Yes won
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 21–24%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 24–27%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 30–33%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 33–36%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be less than 21%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.