AI · resolved market
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b643651344f6f6afe6d18c2796e7fcd0b7ce7a1d04044360ebe198ce023c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,717$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…4b53backed Yes | 0c | 2,095$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 76c | 2,091$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 16c | 2,014$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.46 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 37c | 776.32$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.86 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 16c | 750.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…e287backed Yes | 22c | 646.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 24c | 587.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 57c | 576.63$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 503.46$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 16c | 485.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…9b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 449.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 434.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 28c | 404.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 14c | 370.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 295.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 257.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…2606backed Yes | 18c | 253.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 19c | 249.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 197.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…3e68backed Yes | 59c | 174.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 31c | 159.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 131.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…5bc9backed Yes | 18c | 124.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 21c | 103.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Yes | 18c | 102.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 14c | 87.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…0b03backed Yes | 21c | 72.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…fdc4backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ce…4f07backed Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…be36backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 64c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year?this page
- Will APT. by Rosé and Bruno Mars be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Beautiful Things by Benson Boone be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Birds of a Feather by Billie Eilish be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Die With A Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Lose Control by Teddy Swims be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
- Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the #1 searched song on Google this year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.