Movies · resolved market
Will 'Bring Her Back' gross more than $6.5m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd60301a9b5ffa7c7fd6a4d80531c591ec2a9b7f548ef3b8a0166dc72333ae17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04e…560dbacked Yes | 40c | 31,489$12,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,893.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…d6b0backed No | 60c | 31,489$18,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,893.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 44c | 6,318$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.91 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 53c | 1,899$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.52 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 47c | 1,700$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.91 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,552$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 58c | 946.1$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.62 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 68c | 922.99$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.28 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 61c | 550$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 508.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 42c | 491.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 357$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed Yes | 65c | 351.17$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 55c | 339.02$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 55c | 321$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 72c | 276.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 54c | 264$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 52c | 200.85$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 46c | 144.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 139.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 53c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 50c | 51.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 51c | 48.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 44c | 42.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 61c | 22.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…6414backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…e7c2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…fed9backed Yes | 71c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Bring Her Back' gross more than $6.5m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Bring Her Back' gross between $3.5-4.5m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Bring Her Back' gross between $4.5-5.5m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Bring Her Back' gross between $5.5-6.5m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Bring Her Back' gross less than $3.5m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.