World Politics · resolved market
Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f09d48c416763db1bbd0dfd7e29e7e459a8759633c09e7fd1fe802255423bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 3c | 9,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 4,357$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.24 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…b9d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,626$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30e…804abacked Yes | 16c | 1,366$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 947.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 744.17$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 32c | 706.25$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 22c | 631.63$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 21c | 548$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 34c | 530.29$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.25 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 508.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 507.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 503.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed Yes | 22c | 444.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 24c | 425.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 3c | 370.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 5c | 267$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 40c | 234.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…7064backed Yes | 40c | 224.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 47c | 208.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c73…c894backed Yes | 10c | 206.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 10c | 202.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…e1babacked No | 65c | 166.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 160.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 148.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 141.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 126.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…744ebacked Yes | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…e891backed Yes | 22c | 89.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 81.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0c48backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…32bcbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…881abacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?this page
- Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?Yes won
- Will Bianca Mugyenyi win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Tanille Johnson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Tony McQuail win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.