World Politics · resolved market
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e2fa310889978ae5336d5e45033b99895aa1bf0a2b4d0df135818d11a1d0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f0…e1babacked Yes | 68c | 3,609$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 11c | 3,109$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,259$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.16 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 948.39$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.25 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 13c | 945$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +247.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 13c | 903$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 12c | 697.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed No | 28c | 678.17$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 74c | 665.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 36c | 651$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 49c | 609.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…db5fbacked Yes | 79c | 597.3$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 581.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 74c | 483.98$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 18c | 463.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 27c | 453$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 7c | 421.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 33c | 385.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 333.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 255.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 248.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 246.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c73…c894backed No | 17c | 239.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…7064backed Yes | 51c | 224.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 69c | 209.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 80c | 182.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 34c | 158.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…c507backed Yes | 66c | 151.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 67c | 142.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 10c | 135.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 122.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 109.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 106.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 101.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes | 52c | 99.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 95.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 94.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…13cebacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 73.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…12e9backed Yes | 71c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…1620backed Yes | 73c | 67.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…af91backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c8…b3cabacked Yes | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…dd96backed No | 26c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…5aa3backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1098backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…bbf5backed Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 49c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 75c | 22.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 80c | 15.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?this page
- Will Bianca Mugyenyi win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Tanille Johnson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
- Will Tony McQuail win the Canadian NDP Leadership election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.