Music · resolved market
Will Drake release an album by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6d5389965d729ff8cc56d6d97ff770abbbe12b1a59e9899bb017e072d97968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 1,169$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,085$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 991.29$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 78c | 982.56$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 39c | 783.55$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked No | 62c | 603.89$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 9c | 553$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…4bb9backed No | 70c | 480.26$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 417.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 59c | 354$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 19c | 300.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 228$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…b3d2backed No | 65c | 154.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a7b2backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 34c | 134.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 76c | 131.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 51c | 107$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 28c | 95.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Yes | 30c | 70.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148c…d82bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 35c | 48.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…d86cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 40c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef58…1976backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…c7aabacked No | 51c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…b009backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…3f8abacked No | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.