TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,145,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,182,285

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,145,939 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,048 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens47c291,600$138,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153,132.1467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens48c218,889$105,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,030.541,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked Lightning52c196,276$102,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,571.5419848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Lightning53c124,965$66,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,165.0514650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47a8…52f9backed Lightning52c100,000$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,999.797545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Lightning52c78,385$40,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,596.316442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lightning51c76,546$39,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,339.6741850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Canadiens47c50,000$23,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,50056649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Lightning52c49,427$25,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,701.9428447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lightning51c43,278$21,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,909.9513841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens47c24,519$11,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,907.5233151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Canadiens49c20,156$9,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,299.7140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Canadiens48c19,593$9,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,091.1837754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Canadiens48c19,533$9,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,157.3318452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Lightning56c16,941$9,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,507.167038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Canadiens49c15,827$7,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,070.333450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Lightning50c15,401$7,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,718.98875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning49c14,041$6,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,947.3489636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Canadiens51c13,766$7,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,745.355046%23 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning53c13,247$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,020.3128749.8%143 W · 144 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Canadiens48c12,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.9451045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Lightning51c11,703$5,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,968.474850%24 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Canadiens50c11,312$5,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,675.897244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Lightning46c11,111$5,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,166.5775251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Lightning51c10,350$5,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,278.512146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens47c10,283$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,452.821,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning38c10,134$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.830259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Lightning49c10,038$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,917.7212950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Canadiens48c9,870$4,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,122.2727044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lightning53c9,076$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.4132151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Canadiens48c8,787$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,527.189260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Lightning52c7,858$4,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,086.164161%25 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning53c7,334$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.285250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Canadiens51c6,504$3,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.2158841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens48c6,250$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,25052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning51c6,177$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,150.261,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens48c5,925$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.351,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5a…e0c0backed Canadiens48c5,371$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,792.951850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f3…bf55backed Canadiens49c5,363$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,735.541747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning68c5,085$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,454.671,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Lightning51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.8829146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens48c4,844$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.888845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens48c4,843$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.5483149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning43c4,740$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.292,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning53c4,278$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.11,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Lightning50c4,169$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.6813850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Canadiens47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Lightning52c3,748$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.2314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Lightning53c3,667$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.64555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Lightning51c3,600$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83615448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Canadiens49c3,537$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.499157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed Lightning52c3,302$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Canadiens48c3,229$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.251478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick53cpaid+47.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning49c3,206$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.8940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Lightning51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5309545.3%43 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Canadiens48c2,972$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.6731550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Lightning53c2,754$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.514740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Canadiens54c2,700$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.117163.4%45 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Canadiens49c2,694$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.5712654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Lightning51c2,644$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.7911251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Canadiens47c2,539$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.3225447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Canadiens64c2,446$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.5658467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning52c2,376$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.613,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning52c2,264$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.0361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Canadiens48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0921050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Lightning51c2,092$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9916446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Canadiens51c2,090$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.912355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Canadiens48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.1217353.8%93 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Lightning52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04022946.3%106 W · 123 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Canadiens48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.9811153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9426750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Canadiens51c1,970$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.4625552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Lightning53c1,963$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.4155446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Lightning53c1,762$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.947258.3%42 W · 30 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Lightning52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.011656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed Canadiens49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7652100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+202%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Lightning53c1,467$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.4424749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Canadiens48c1,389$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Canadiens44c1,380$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.395152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Canadiens48c1,344$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.995662.5%35 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Lightning68c1,304$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.9338551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Lightning52c1,272$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.5429448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lightning53c1,262$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.636448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5225…5732backed Lightning52c1,261$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.643256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Lightning12c1,212$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2154418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Canadiens30c1,200$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84032451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85a…8cd8backed Canadiens48c1,102$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.087957%45 W · 34 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Lightning51c1,100$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56126154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Canadiens48c1,093$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.1989249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Canadiens35c1,090$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.6436852.2%192 W · 176 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Lightning53c1,069$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.565947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning38c1,057$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.681,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2567…2371backed Canadiens48c1,009$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.779552.6%50 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Canadiens47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Canadiens50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50014837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Canadiens47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53016656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Canadiens47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53010346.6%48 W · 55 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Canadiens50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Canadiens48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0e…ce42backed Canadiens61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.