NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57e7ec277deeb9c05acd877a3c95bc34f5f898fc40937a860130b33685f41249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Lightning | 32c | 2,092$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.36 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens | 68c | 2,018$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.92 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 31c | 783.88$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Canadiens | 53c | 516.11$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.77 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens | 74c | 443.46$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Canadiens | 70c | 441.9$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 249 | 52.2%130 W · 119 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 69c | 436.28$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Canadiens | 69c | 354.17$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Lightning | 32c | 330.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 27c | 300.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 46c | 272.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Canadiens | 68c | 232.73$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Lightning | 32c | 215.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Canadiens | 69c | 213.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Canadiens | 70c | 208.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lightning | 30c | 194.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Lightning | 43c | 194.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lightning | 28c | 173.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Canadiens | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Lightning | 30c | 127.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Lightning | 42c | 114.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Lightning | 31c | 99.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 23c | 89.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Lightning | 24c | 80.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Lightning | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Lightning | 31c | 79.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Lightning | 42c | 73.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Lightning | 31c | 71.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Lightning | 26c | 70.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Canadiens | 69c | 58.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…c2d1backed Canadiens | 71c | 57.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Lightning | 32c | 55.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…a607backed Lightning | 30c | 50.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Canadiens | 70c | 46.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Lightning | 26c | 44.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Canadiens | 68c | 41.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…20ebbacked Canadiens | 71c | 41.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Canadiens | 70c | 39.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Lightning | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Canadiens | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Canadiens | 78c | 35.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Canadiens | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lightning | 36c | 33.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Canadiens | 70c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Canadiens | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Canadiens | 74c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Canadiens | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…e7f0backed Canadiens | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Canadiens | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Lightning | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Lightning | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…6156backed Canadiens | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Canadiens | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Canadiens | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…0438backed Canadiens | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…5488backed Canadiens | 70c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Canadiens | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Canadiens | 72c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.