NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c8f56e1c531556009f296bea0079d18d0e7777623ae9ff43f82edbc8c44feca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 4,441$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.79 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 56c | 3,232$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.96 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 60c | 3,190$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.17 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 43c | 2,697$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.41 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 57c | 2,489$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.75 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 43c | 1,428$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.06 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 43c | 1,088$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.93 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 874.09$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.16 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 873.78$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.27 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 861.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 734.11$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.1 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 496.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.81 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 442.75$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 45c | 431.21$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 57c | 430$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 58c | 420.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 418.36$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…8ce5backed Over | 57c | 266.53$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Over | 54c | 243.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 189.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 179.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 44c | 161.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 51c | 146.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 38c | 145.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 48c | 130.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 57c | 116.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Under | 44c | 112.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Under | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 58c | 97.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 43c | 94.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 63c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 81.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 56c | 79.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 41c | 79.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…8069backed Under | 45c | 74.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fb…ddbdbacked Under | 45c | 74.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Over | 57c | 73.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…fc9dbacked Over | 56c | 70.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 69.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 56c | 68.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…b111backed Over | 56c | 66.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 44c | 61.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Over | 56c | 60.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Over | 22c | 58.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 59c | 56.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 54c | 56.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 56c | 54.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 43c | 50.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Over | 56c | 41.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Under | 39c | 40.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62af…3988backed Over | 50c | 37.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Under | 39c | 35.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 53c | 33.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 55c | 33.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed9…b344backed Over | 58c | 33.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Over | 31c | 33.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 57c | 33.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 55c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfb…4d8dbacked Over | 55c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 40c | 26.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…959fbacked Over | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8e…fc1dbacked Over | 57c | 26.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…cb0bbacked Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.