NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916658d123e3ac3bbbb8ed964f9e9ea3952e46a5da3e9b485e166e580495499c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 8,529$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.53 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 6,137$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.1 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 57c | 2,485$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 2,132$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.9 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 1,782$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Under | 54c | 1,755$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.12 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 56c | 1,710$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 57c | 1,695$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.42 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 1,640$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.49 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 41c | 1,366$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.92 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Over | 49c | 1,031$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.58 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 51c | 1,026$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.57 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 650.35$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 609$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 580.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 42c | 552.94$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 43c | 520.8$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.81 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 443.97$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Over | 43c | 328.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 48c | 304.77$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 44c | 287.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 245.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 31c | 238.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Under | 42c | 229.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 211.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 199.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 173.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 43c | 170.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 151.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Under | 57c | 126.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 70c | 124.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Over | 66c | 116.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ca…df8abacked Under | 49c | 112.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…95ebbacked Under | 71c | 101.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 94.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 88.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…f1edbacked Under | 57c | 84.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f3…9afebacked Under | 48c | 81.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Under | 49c | 69.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…aa4abacked Under | 57c | 68.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…16b5backed Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 55c | 66.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…b5f3backed Under | 58c | 63.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 20c | 63.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 44c | 59.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 56c | 58.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 48c | 58.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 52c | 55.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…8134backed Over | 43c | 55.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…842bbacked Under | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8408backed Over | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Over | 42c | 44.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 54c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Over | 46c | 41.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 44c | 38.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 54c | 32.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 48c | 30.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…2ef5backed Under | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Under | 71c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Under | 58c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.