Movies · resolved market
Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1e80203dfc3e36f8cff3aad0c5519a7d7a54bda9ace7d08d68a5746b8d8f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 9,234$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 1c | 6,641$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed No | 4c | 6,466$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.37 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 67c | 5,004$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.46 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 20c | 4,755$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.21 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,795$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed No | 1c | 2,791$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…f4cbbacked No | 2c | 1,234$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 16c | 1,173$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…bef0backed No | 2c | 1,161$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 72c | 1,013$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.35 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 9c | 1,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 30c | 956.83$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.56 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…cb72backed No | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 30c | 720.66$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 76c | 574.32$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…b9a4backed No | 2c | 524.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…530ebacked No | 39c | 507.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 65c | 495.5$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 25c | 412.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 69c | 351.32$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222c…0264backed No | 4c | 254.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…4902backed No | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 23c | 215.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 7c | 212$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 71c | 198$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 13c | 191.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 34c | 163.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 80c | 142.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed No | 11c | 140.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 30c | 135.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed No | 32c | 85.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 34c | 85.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 29c | 70.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…e10ebacked No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 21c | 56.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 80c | 44.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acf…6372backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M?this page
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16–19M?No won
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19–22M?No won
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $22M?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.