World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre regain a seat in Canadian Parliament in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc10ee236b0bc5363bca81e58346eb32db461bb669cf9f46a11d165304f9b1609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 6c | 5,140$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 7c | 3,961$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,567$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 3c | 2,967$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 4c | 2,857$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 25c | 2,743$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 2,510$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 2c | 2,426$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…58a1backed Yes | 79c | 1,900$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…4e5bbacked No | 6c | 1,815$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 77c | 1,597$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 1,499$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 8c | 1,484$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed No | 4c | 1,384$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 3c | 1,363$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…42eebacked No | 2c | 1,190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 26c | 1,190$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.7 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b8…dda3backed No | 3c | 1,098$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 2c | 1,063$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 78c | 959.03$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.36 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…8660backed No | 20c | 866.89$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 847.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed No | 4c | 756.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +410.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 13c | 704.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 2c | 671.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…3602backed No | 3c | 635.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a6…e29bbacked No | 10c | 503.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…f9d1backed No | 5c | 485.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 6c | 474.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 3c | 459.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91c…d9ebbacked No | 3c | 450.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 383.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 6c | 348.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 5c | 345.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked No | 6c | 308.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c62…9f37backed No | 4c | 304.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2172…1bf1backed Yes | 67c | 296.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked No | 7c | 294$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed No | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 217.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb09…0395backed No | 7c | 165.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 12c | 153.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…dafcbacked Yes | 79c | 142.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 13c | 137.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…181bbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 96.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 21c | 92.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 70c | 80.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 22c | 72.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…28fabacked No | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…7d84backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 34c | 31.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 77c | 24.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.