World Politics · resolved market
Will Soraya Martinez Ferrada win the 2025 Montreal mayor election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd34bc67496006f4fd90020d67e8dd1b45958eee60d464bc6b1335090eea6a20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb099…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 1,404$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 55c | 1,020$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 7c | 524.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…5800backed No | 8c | 464.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…9b1abacked Yes | 79c | 348.31$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +147.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 341.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 3c | 339.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 71c | 329.24$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed No | 16c | 223$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 6c | 190.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 18c | 164.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 16c | 136.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed Yes | 70c | 97.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 64c | 48.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…cccebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 57c | 31.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…b8edbacked Yes | 73c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked Yes | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Yes | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Soraya Martinez Ferrada win the 2025 Montreal mayor election?this page
- Will Craig Sauvé win the 2025 Montreal mayor election?No won
- Will Luc Rabouin win the 2025 Montreal mayor election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.