NHL · resolved market
NHL Playoffs: Capitals vs. Canadiens (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb306c9be690d12f9f12b763f4cfd5059e77dba198c2731dd0a9161e0c482f64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Capitals | 71c | 40,515$28,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,879.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens | 6c | 40,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Canadiens | 17c | 39,608$6,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,853.13 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 13c | 34,577$4,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.34 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Canadiens | 29c | 30,000$8,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,700 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Capitals | 72c | 28,576$20,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,135.64 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Canadiens | 30c | 19,951$5,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,985.37 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Capitals | 70c | 6,901$4,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.17 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Capitals | 79c | 4,329$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Canadiens | 30c | 3,562$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.36 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…6cd3backed Canadiens | 25c | 3,333$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Canadiens | 31c | 2,537$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.67 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Capitals | 76c | 2,301$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.03 | 133 | 63.2%84 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Canadiens | 1c | 2,184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Capitals | 70c | 1,750$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.5 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Canadiens | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Canadiens | 28c | 1,417$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.67 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Canadiens | 24c | 1,323$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Canadiens | 5c | 933.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Canadiens | 19c | 898.12$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Capitals | 69c | 621.7$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 185 | 20.5%38 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Canadiens | 31c | 566$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Canadiens | 6c | 499.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Capitals | 62c | 355$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…0035backed Canadiens | 23c | 335.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Capitals | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Canadiens | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 317 | 44.2%140 W · 177 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Canadiens | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Capitals | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 152 | 55.3%84 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Canadiens | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Canadiens | 22c | 93.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Canadiens | 36c | 81.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…73f5backed Canadiens | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Capitals | 73c | 72.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked Canadiens | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…a424backed Canadiens | 22c | 53.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Canadiens | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…5900backed Canadiens | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…9260backed Canadiens | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f37…b248backed Canadiens | 36c | 36.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Capitals | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Capitals | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Capitals | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.