Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e353bb3e88155c9a566936a2c0518372962b7494b3b12185e9a3a5c6823f811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 54c | 1,400$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 48c | 1,309$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.58 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 69c | 984.54$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.02 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Down | 44c | 666$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.13 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Up | 55c | 441.77$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Down | 43c | 279.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Down | 44c | 226$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 52c | 148.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Down | 49c | 145.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Down | 62c | 136.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…a452backed Up | 19c | 122.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Down | 69c | 121.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Down | 76c | 118.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…af73backed Down | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked Up | 10c | 108.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Up | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Up | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…d710backed Down | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 21c | 96.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Down | 77c | 95.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Down | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Up | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…d56abacked Up | 42c | 60.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 24c | 56.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447b…8f05backed Up | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Up | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Up | 27c | 41.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5a…ad55backed Up | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…7122backed Up | 56c | 38.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Up | 36c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Down | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Up | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.