Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1fa372fe3cbc3caa1264be2f660b174a3a1f77af236d7334a0254d1ebadec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 22c | 662.44$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed Yes | 63c | 412.87$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 403.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 325.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed No | 34c | 297.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…3ad0backed No | 77c | 255.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 238.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 52c | 232.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 26c | 226.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 159.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 142.28$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 136.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 24c | 124.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 58c | 105.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked No | 51c | 97.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…87bcbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 49c | 62.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 39c | 60.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 48c | 45.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…fd2fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…218ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…e601backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…5381backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…93d9backed Yes | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 63c | 35.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 32.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…6422backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…26f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…62cabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…9c1cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in November?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.75 in November?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in November?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in November?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.