Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89128624cbc2b4eddfb54b73536ed3e45c6781af1e2e5d1f5688f5af99c443ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,064$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 26c | 403.22$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 78c | 323.79$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.66 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 6c | 221.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 45c | 203.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 142.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 54c | 100.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 65c | 92.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 55c | 79.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 65c | 58.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +150%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…fd34backed Yes | 61c | 30.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…a175backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 69c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch McConnell vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Sullivan vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will John Cornyn vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will John Thune vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will Lindsey Graham vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
- Will Ted Cruz vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.