Us Politics · resolved market
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb852f150cda6dec55b2267bb6780b4fe6d35198ab7331cbed654f800d29f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,671$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,025$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 17c | 1,002$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 4c | 892.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 16c | 617.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 58c | 591.59$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 5c | 543.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 34c | 525.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 4c | 512.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 501.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…fde0backed Yes | 6c | 336.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 15c | 260.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 252.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 252.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked Yes | 44c | 250.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 16c | 249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 16c | 241$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cc…31ddbacked No | 54c | 231.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes | 41c | 201$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 166.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 164.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 141.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed No | 53c | 112.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…4b54backed Yes | 51c | 98.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 75.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…750cbacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 53.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5064…f834backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.