China Taiwan · resolved market
New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d1963dd065063bdb3f05597f355982bd2b83fdfbf231330c141c25a5005693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ef8…90a2backed No | 13c | 2,005$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed Yes | 72c | 585.51$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 301.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 13c | 189.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 19c | 99.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…42ddbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed No | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…f6ffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 64c | 33.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked No | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.