Us Politics · resolved market
Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a19d1fa88762b35248f325dd433d19cbae292859420eb282081aee0e046dd36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes | 19c | 11,065$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…adabbacked No | 78c | 5,953$4,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…5dc1backed Yes | 9c | 2,750$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 20c | 2,652$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.34 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 2,623$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,483$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 14c | 1,299$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.87 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 18c | 894.73$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 728.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 661.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 24c | 616.45$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 496$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 404$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 324.15$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 15c | 311.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 269.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 73c | 224$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 47c | 213.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 213.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d72backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 133$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked No | 76c | 119.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 80c | 100.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 23c | 74.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff17…5745backed No | 64c | 69.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 35c | 64.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 67c | 54.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.