World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4dc75e9a2f28d2cf47ca7916f25850c0aa6b87622657b76c6a5c7481a43c57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2da…682bbacked Yes | 56c | 25,102$14,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,056.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb6…f761backed No | 44c | 25,082$11,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,045.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 691.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 70c | 606.57$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.76 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 16c | 381.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 27c | 338.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 49c | 320$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.34 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 35c | 289$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 249$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6213…bb46backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 13c | 154.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf105…96a1backed Yes | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…21f7backed Yes | 15c | 133.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 103.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…d80fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 12c | 92.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 33c | 62.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Poilievre say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Canada First" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Land Lumber" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.