World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f621c932cb6edd851762da766b43098680935fa2afd9ed4fac036880df7878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 31c | 1,366$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.66 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 75c | 587.27$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 22c | 509.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 54c | 502.87$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…aae9backed Yes | 76c | 419.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 19c | 373.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf105…96a1backed Yes | 78c | 344.32$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 6c | 305.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b316backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 27c | 287.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 75c | 266.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 24c | 248.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 31c | 205$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 27c | 187.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 40c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 75c | 160.66$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 26c | 151.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed No | 29c | 147.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 141.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 77c | 131.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 71c | 130.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f48…aa49backed No | 38c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…d8c7backed Yes | 79c | 127.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…4254backed Yes | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 99.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 86.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 69c | 81.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…7168backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 80c | 75.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 89 | 5.6%5 W · 84 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 21c | 70.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 22c | 68.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…d77dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 43c | 62.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…7336backed Yes | 77c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…e5c0backed Yes | 80c | 46.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…6771backed Yes | 63c | 42.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…d074backed Yes | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…6c53backed Yes | 78c | 38.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Yes | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 70c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…efe2backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Poilievre say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Canada First" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Land Lumber" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.