World Politics · resolved market
Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9b897384d2f6739eb323d4d0d3e6860a42796c3c03da7fe041b1910356c59a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 25c | 1,578$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 78c | 703.23$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 17c | 599.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 22c | 317.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 262.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 80c | 256$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 17c | 185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 23c | 170.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 18c | 154.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 149.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 19c | 77.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…cd92backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 70c | 58.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…818ebacked No | 19c | 56.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…95f5backed Yes | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf105…96a1backed Yes | 74c | 34.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…03bcbacked Yes | 79c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poilievre say "Common Sense" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?this page
- Will Poilievre say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Canada First" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Carbon Tax" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Elon" or "Musk" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "French" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Immigration" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Land Lumber" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Pipeline" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?No won
- Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
- Will Poilievre say "Trump" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.